Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.010172 0.011489 0.012915 0.014572 0.016446 0.018500 0.020923
2025-12-07 0.007766 0.009504 0.011542 0.014108 0.017256 0.020998 0.025790
2025-12-14 0.006497 0.008400 0.010755 0.013888 0.017955 0.023064 0.029988
2025-12-21 0.005527 0.007473 0.009990 0.013493 0.018254 0.024514 0.033403
2025-12-28 0.005090 0.007155 0.009933 0.013953 0.019641 0.027426 0.038941
2026-01-04 0.004675 0.006804 0.009770 0.014215 0.020734 0.029983 0.044174
2026-01-11 0.004351 0.006536 0.009679 0.014544 0.021917 0.032726 0.049881
2026-01-18 0.003959 0.006123 0.009328 0.014438 0.022420 0.034483 0.054231
2026-01-25 0.003645 0.005794 0.009063 0.014422 0.023035 0.036427 0.059002
2026-02-01 0.003322 0.005416 0.008686 0.014186 0.023265 0.037764 0.062886
2026-02-08 0.003107 0.005191 0.008524 0.014272 0.024006 0.039952 0.068319
2026-02-15 0.002877 0.004919 0.008261 0.014162 0.024400 0.041584 0.072928
2026-02-22 0.002748 0.004810 0.008265 0.014512 0.025621 0.044733 0.080494
2026-03-01 0.002492 0.004460 0.007832 0.014069 0.025423 0.045421 0.083760
2026-03-08 0.002301 0.004206 0.007542 0.013849 0.025593 0.046753 0.088283
2026-03-15 0.002102 0.003922 0.007175 0.013455 0.025405 0.047409 0.091579
2026-03-22 0.002045 0.003894 0.007266 0.013914 0.026841 0.051167 0.101112
2026-03-29 0.001964 0.003813 0.007254 0.014175 0.027915 0.054317 0.109717
2026-04-05 0.001897 0.003755 0.007278 0.014503 0.029143 0.057851 0.119383
2026-04-12 0.001783 0.003594 0.007090 0.014397 0.029491 0.059675 0.125693
2026-04-19 0.001688 0.003464 0.006954 0.014381 0.030019 0.061890 0.133000
2026-04-26 0.001577 0.003292 0.006720 0.014146 0.030068 0.063122 0.138299
2026-05-03 0.001508 0.003200 0.006643 0.014231 0.030799 0.065829 0.147031